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Good tokens 2025-10-10

2025-10-09

A message from my sponsor

Person Do Thing is on Amazon. You’re here so you know Uri already, but I’ll just say that my family loves this one and that it makes a great gift for the person in your life that loves games.

Worth your time

The Resonant Computing Manifesto. See if you see anyone you know šŸ˜‰.

The universe as an evolving organism. I have no idea whether or not this is true, but I really enjoy this style of conversation about black holes and space and what we know and what we don’t. There should be more of this.

Frequency reduces difficulty. Via Mark Larson.

What happened to .400 hitters?

ā€œYou have enough ideas to destroy Amazon.ā€ Not just founders, product managers too.

Things I learned

Monarch butterflies produce a ā€œsuper generationā€ that live 8x as long as the other generations to allow them to complete their migratory cycle. Again, via Secrets of the Forest, which has to be the children’s book of the year in the Dillard household. It’s beginning to rival the Kroger App for introducing me to delightful facts. And I don’t say that lightly!

If anyone knows the author, send her my compliments.

Brand Mascots are actually persuasive to children.

This is how the Canadian Supreme Court dresses. And even worse, they’re changing it. Why, Canada, why?

Musings

"Life is 10 per cent what you make it, and 90 per cent how you take it" ―Irving Berlin. Sometimes I think the quotes at the end of The Browser our aimed directly at me. I promise you my kids will grow up with this one memorized.

A little bit of SSP

I was on the Demystifying Cosmetics Podcast talking about what I learned making high performance biomaterials from kelp.

If that’s not enough, we’re doing a live show of --dangerously-skip-permissions on Friday at 2 pm ET. Come and hang out.

(I have to be the only person putting out a podcast on beauty ingredients and coding with AI the same week)

LLM corner

Video models are zero-shot learners and reasoners

Mike Judge on the lack of AI software productivity in the data and a response.

Slop is a choice

2025-10-09

2025 is the year of slop. Meta has made an infinite slop machine. So has OpenAI. If this isn’t bad enough, our jobs have been invaded by workslop.

The implication behind all of this is that slop is the fault of the LLMs or their creators.

But for a moment, I want to ask you to consider… is this true?

I don’t dispute that we’re seeing a lot more AI generated slop than we were 2 years ago… but I do wonder what it’s displacing. When I see this AI video of a woman jumping through a glass bridge, I wonder what human content it is replacing in those users feeds. What is the quality of that content? Would it qualify as slop too?

Here is what I believe to be true.

Making something excellent takes care and focus. Sometimes that care and focus is the years you spent prior to the morning you make something excellent and the final thing hops out of you almost fully formed. Sometimes that care and focus is the years you spend refining something until it is excellent.

Most creative work, including mine, isn’t particularly high quality. If you want to be uncharitable, you could call this slop.1 Internet platforms have made it easier for people to create and display their work. LLMs have made it easier to create. This means that we see a lot more slop.

There will be some Sora posts that will be funny, wonderful, even beautiful. There will be many that are slop.

At the end of it all, slop is a choice. My choice and your choice. ā€œThe devil’s oldest strategy is, of course, promising godlike creation without godlike effort.ā€


  1. I will note for a second that it was not called slop when it was fully human generated low quality content. 

Mike Judge asks good questions about AI shovelware

2025-10-09

Mike Judge has a great piece poking at the AI hype where he asks essentially, ā€œIf these tools are so great, where is the explosion of AI created stuff in the world?ā€

The whole piece is worth a read, but one of the most interesting things to me about it is the data he brings to bear on the question.

He looks at:

  1. iOS app releases
  2. Android releases
  3. Domain registrations
  4. Steam releases
  5. Public GitHub repos created

And then concludes from these that AI coding tools are ā€œbullshitā€ ending with the call for people who claim that they are now 10x software engineers because of AI, to show the receipts.

First, I want to concentrate on what I love about this. ā€œIf this is so great, where is it in the data?ā€ is absolutely the right question to be asking.

And there is definitely a dog that isn’t barking here. The data that he cites aren’t perfect (more on this in a second) and yet really impactful things tend to move really obvious metrics. The gains in life expectancy between 1870 and 1970 are really easy to see.

So on one hand, I love this challenge. On the other, I think he goes too far in calling it all bullshit and saying that it doesn’t work.

I’ll hold myself out as the example that Mike asks for. While I won’t claim to be a 10x engineer, I had never completed a meaningful software project in production before GPT-4 launched. Since then, I’ve coded this blog / portfolio site myself, launched an AI based local news site that has hundreds of weekly readers, and I have a third unreleased prototype that I think could be a real product.

Analyzing myself against Mike’s charts:

  1. I haven’t launched an iOS app
  2. I haven’t launched an Android app
  3. I have bought 3 domains
  4. I haven’t launched a steam app
  5. I’ve created 1 public repo, unrelated to my AI coding work

Now I’m open to the idea that I’m the exception rather than the rule… but I also too humble to think that I’m a unicorn on this dimension.

There’s plenty of room for middle ground here. It’s totally possible that: 1. AI tools are net negative for most software engineers 2. AI tools are transformative for people like me 3. People like me are a minority

Intuitively, I doubt that this is true and yet I don’t have hard data beyond my personal experience to bring to bear on this question. It’s certainly something I’ll be thinking about over the coming months. A more likely explanation in my view is that we haven’t unlocked the right combination of values, tactics, organizational design, and training to unlock AI software productivity at scale… but I can’t prove that at this point.

Worth a ponder.

Sympathy for the Devil

2025-10-02

The Power Broker by Robert Caro deserves its reputation as a masterpiece. One of the best books I’ve ever read and up there in my pantheon of non-fiction books with Breaks of the Game and What it Takes.

Reading this book from the perspective of 2025, I think Robert Caro got Robert Moses wrong.1 Yes, he was obsessed with power. Yes, he ruined neighborhoods and destroyed communities with highways and slum clearance programs. Yes, he failed to treat the black citizens of New York City as having equal significance with its white citizens. He had all of these failings and it is important not to shy away from them.

But he was also a genius. An operator and a builder. He reorganized the New York State government into the form it still holds today. He built parks and stadiums and power dams.

Yes, Moses hoarded power. He had sharp elbows. He pushed the limits. He was also prepared, on time, organized, and ready to work tirelessly. He didn’t enrich himself or his family, but instead funneled money into getting power, so he could do more building. He built with all the limitations and blindspots of the generation he grew up in but he did build. He could be petty and attention seeking and yet he was also fantastically productive, not for just himself and his ego, but also for the people of New York.

It’s important while reading the book to pay attention to the other characters coming of age alongside Moses, people like Jimmy Walker, who are comically corrupt by today’s standards. When you do, you get the feeling that Caro is comparing Moses not to the other men and women who could’ve been chosen to lead at the time but to a hypothetical perfect public servant that never did exist and never could exist.

I first heard of Robert Moses in a City Planning Survey course that I took as a sophomore at UNC Chapel Hill. The TA who taught the class had an infectious enthusiasm for city planning and so that summer I found myself reading the Jane Jacobs classic Death and Life of Great American Cities.2

So I came into the book with a sense that the problems with American Cities are downstream of the choices that Robert Moses and his disciples made to orient them towards cars and away from walking and public transportation and neighborhoods with a sense of place.

But after reading the book, I think the problem for American cities isn’t that Robert Moses ruined them, but that there have been no Robert Moseses since: civic leaders with the intellect and power to reshape cities with a new, imperfect vision of what the good life is. We know from Amsterdam and Paris that this sort of transformation is possible and yet we’ve chosen to stay stuck in time, living with the same problems year after year.

The Robert Moses of 2025 would probably not favor cars over other forms of public transportation or redline minority neighborhoods. He would be imperfect in new ways that we cannot yet see or understand. But he would build.


  1. It’s a credit to Caro’s immense ability that I can read his work and come to very different conclusions about what it means. 

  2. Still one of my favorite books to this day. 

Good Tokens 2025-10-01

2025-10-02

Best enjoyed this week in a sunny corner of a park

Worth your time

If you’ve ever wanted to buy a life sized dinosaur, now is your chance. Someday my son is going to find out I had this opportunity and didn’t take it and will never look at me the same way again.

The Quiet Ones by Nikunj Kothari. An ode to the people that do the little things to make a company or a team effective.

Illiteracy is a policy choice. We don’t talk about Mississippi’s education system often enough (although careful readers of Good Tokens will recognize this from a previous edition). Every single state should be studying their approach to literacy. See also the Sold a Story .

Altoids by the fistful. Via my friend Daniel.

I now realize that everything I lorded over other people—all the things I gatekept without consciously understanding that this was what I was doing—I didn’t need to do that. It really didn’t help anything. For some number of people who interacted with me, Iwas the problem. I could’ve been more tolerant or forgiving, I could’ve said ā€œlet’s find out together,ā€ I could’ve let other people have the fun once in a while.

"The devil’s oldest strategy is, of course, promising godlike creation without godlike effort." Slop is a choice.

Musings

I’ve become obsessed with the tops of trees, in particular in the morning or the evening when the sun is hitting them. For some insect or bird or leaf that spot is the center of the world.

Let’s see if I can land the plane on this one. I’m surprised that there isn’t more nostalgic fiction about growing up in evangelical Christian circles. There’s satirical stuff like Saved but nothing that I’m aware of like The Big Sick that both pokes fun at being a child of immigrants while also on some level clearly feeling affection for it. Is this out there and I just don’t know about it?

Are we at the point where ā€œyes, andā€¦ā€ is overrated? If not, how long until we get there?

Something I struggled with this week: for someone like you and me, in 2025, what does it mean to live a good life? At 19, it was easier for me to articulate an answer to this question I actually believed than it is now in many ways. If you feel like you have a good answer to this, consider this me humbly requesting that you write it and share it.

Things I learned

Apparently Marie Antoinette never said ā€œLet them eat cakeā€, according to a recent Rest Is History Bonus episode. I’m a sucker forthings we think that aren’t actually so. Also from a RIH bonus episode: apparently the US now requires people to share their social media handles to get a travel visa. What are we doing here people?

China installed more industrial robots last year than the rest of the world combined. This is one of those stats that a 17 year old is going to be citing in an AP History Exam in 2084 about why China won the war for Taiwan.

Badgers air out their beds to keep them clean, via Secrets of the Forest.

ā€œYou are going to continue sucking for the rest of your career.ā€ A call from Nerajno to embrace learning.

LLM corner

Episode 2 of Dangerously Skip Permissions. Mark your calendars, tell your friends. Tell people you don’t even like.

A list of ways to run more than one Claude Code instance at once. I was hoping to build in this space but I may be too late.

The future is compounding teams

Simon Willson on designing agents loops.

What does a UI look like that all users are able to edit? What primitives are needed to build it?

Fuzzy compilers in less than 30 seconds.

Making a note to try out Microsoft’s amplifier.

Human / AI synergy and having a theory of mind.