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Good tokens 2025-01-10

2025-01-10

A message from my sponsor:

OceanMade has announced pre sales of its Kelp Pots. These seed starter pots use kelp pulp to retain water instead of the traditional peat. The kelp pulp used in these pots is a byproduct of Macro Oceans beauty ingredient, Big Kelp Hydration. I’ve gotten a chance to see some of these up close and I’m really excited to see them coming together. It’s a small example of a big dream: using traceable, ocean farmed kelp products as an alternative to higher impact terrestrial sources. Due check them out if you’re a gardener.

Worth your time

Michael Lewis’s story about Chris Marks, a public servant who “led the development of industry-wide standards and practices to prevent roof falls in underground mines, leading to the first year (2016) of no roof fall fatalities in the United States”, is fantastic. Some gems:

At the height of the Vietnam War, a coal miner was nearly as likely to be killed on the job as an American soldier in uniform was to die in combat, and far more likely to be injured. (And that didn’t include some massive number of deaths that would one day follow from black lung disease.)

And

People facing a complicated problem measure whatever they can easily measure. But the measurements by themselves don’t lead to understanding.

And

Roof bolts were indeed more efficient and effective than timber supports in preventing chunks of roof from wounding miners. But they were expensive to install. The coal mine companies had, in effect, figured out how few roof bolts they needed to use to maintain the same level of risk their miners had endured before their invention

Materials we have run out of by Ed Conway

Noah Smith on Japanese urbanism. Having zones that restrict certain activities rather than prescribe what can be done seems like a small change with a big impact.

From Zheng Dong Wang’s fabulous 2024 letter:

The first awesome conclusion of the model does the eval is that we will achieve every evaluation we can state. Recall that evaluations must be legible, fast, and either a good approximation of a wanted capability or useful itself.

And:

Two years ago, ~Demis Hassabis enumerated~ three properties of problems suitable for AI: a massive combinatorial search space, a clear objective function to optimize against, and lots of data or an efficient simulator.

Things I learned

Musings

All large scale changes should be presented as a return to the past.

I wonder what it would look like to restructure local government around an escalating set of reviews. Imagine filing for a building permit where:

  • The first level of the form is evaluated by AI with the ability to appeal

  • The second level goes to a human

  • The third level goes to a supervisor

The second and third levels become new evaluation cases. This already happens today at places like YouTube, but imagine bringing it to your local government.

Quotes

Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat

— F. Scott Fitzgerald via The Browser

Good tokens 2024-12-20

2024-12-20

Worth your time

Boris planning

Many wonderful public servants made valiant efforts and scored some great wins, but Democratic leadership did not make it a top priority to clear out the underbrush that jams the gears of government.

From Bringing Elon to a knife fight

New rules for media; from #19:

Every second for the viewer is just that viral video where the person picks between two pop stars. You’re always deciding what to pay attention to. The relationship between person-who-makes and person-who-consumes is paramount to long-term success, because if you are winning that game then you will be able to survive.

Things I learned

Eyes have evolved more than 50 times - Salon via Rohit

Musings

You can only avoid competition by avoiding good ideas. — Paul Graham

Product market fit provides a business with gravity
- It lets you know up from down — this helps
- But it also weighs on you; it’s tough to take the business in a direction that your current product / market / customer isn’t pulling you

A key skill for the future is going to be how to work with something that is:
1. smarter than you in many / most domains
2. sometimes wrong

A surprising amount of life is figuring out the right words to say in order to get what you want

Good tokens 2024-12-13

2024-12-13

Things I learned

Already my first correction of my 2024 list: it appears that 75% of the world's saffron probably does not end up in Fernet. Thanks to Tom Whitwell for the correction.

Infanticide facts from Pacific Standard:

Fascinating, but extremely hard to read, especially as my infant daughter slept on my chest.

From my friend Oriana: The more males and females of a bird species look alike (e.g. cranes), the more likely they are to mate for life.  The more males and females of a bird species look dissimilar (e.g. mallards), the more likely they are to be promiscuous.

The oldest bond in the world dates from December 10, 1624; pays €13.61 of interest a year. From the FT via The Browser.

Worth your time

Ben James on Fusion. Can’t wait to read the rest of his guides.

Some thinking on how companies get penalized for trying to be more sustainable by the Green Beauty Community. I do think that one reaction to the backlash on greenwashing has been some companies pulling back from talking about what they’re doing.

this is the japanese snow fairy 🤍

[image or embed]

— Nature's masterpiece (@nature-view.bsky.social) December 8, 2024 at 5:53 AM

Musings

Write shitty first drafts is another way of saying that quality is derived from quantity.

Token stream 2024-12-05

2024-12-05

Worth your time

Literally worth your time:

Telling the time by sundial and history not only was custom, but also was understood as following God’s time. The idea of overriding traditional timekeeping because of the needs of the modern world seemed positively sacrilegious. “People…must eat, sleep and work…by railroad time,” wrote a contributor to the Indianapolis Daily Sentinel. “People will have to marry by railroad time…. Ministers will be required to preach by railroad time…. Banks will open and close by railroad time; notes will be paid or protested by railroad time.” 

From Heather Cox Richardson on the standardization of time.

Skunkworks rules by Eric Gilliam:

  1. Reduce the bureaucracy to almost zero. Ideally, one person should have almost complete authority over day-to-day decision-making.
  2. Keep the team ruthlessly small.
  3. Whenever possible, only take on contracts where there is enough mutual trust with funders and subcontractors to work with them with a minimum amount of bureaucracy. If funder decisions cannot be made swiftly, the project is probably not worth pursuing.

I’d add: Build ambitious things on short timelines. And a bonus quote from Kelly Johnson: “The theory of the Skunk Works is to learn how to do things quickly and cheaply and to tailor the systems to the degree of risk. There is no one good way to build all airplanes.”

“‘Pristine’ landscapes simply do not exist and, in most cases, have not existed for millennia.”

“What makes a good business is industry structure.” — Cal Paterson on the business potential of LLMs.

What long context windows mean for how AI will change work.

AI and material design: AI_innovation. Very relevant to my work at Macro Oceans.

Things I learned

From Sapiens on the origins of suicide:

More typically, among today’s ~U.S. high school students~, 60 percent say they have considered killing themselves, and 14 percent have thought about it seriously in the past year.

Panda related merchandise made up half of all Atlanta Zoo merchandise sales — AJC

Between 1986 and 2018, 12.3M hectares of cropland in the United States was abandoned. Note that this figure does not include urbanization or development. Environmental Research Letters.

Musings

“It wasn’t that Dario had the best ideas, although he had plenty… he just ran 10 to 100 times as many experiments as anyone else. That’s when I knew he would do amazing things.”

From Dion Almaer, Principles of Developer AI Product Development. Reminds me of “quantity precedes quality.”

My latest AI hack for getting out writing more quickly (company project docs, blog posts): * Record an audio file where I dictate as much as I can about a project * Add that + any other relevant documentation to NotebookLM * Ask NotebookLM to write a first draft for me * Edit that into the shape I want it

I still end up editing out ~50-75% but it gets me passed the empty page as quickly as possible. I estimate I turn a ~half day writing block into something I can do on a 15-20 minute walk + a little computer organization.

People only decide to buy something when they really, really care about it. Otherwise it’s not worth the friction of getting out your wallet.

“The answers are always inside the problem, not outside.” — Marshall McLuhan via Gordon

“If you're not living on the edge you're taking up too much space.” — Stephen Hunt via Ade Oshineye

Things I learned in 2024

2024-12-04

Pisgah National Forrest, North Carolina, USA. My favorite place I visited in 2024.

I borrowed this concept from Tom Whitwell as a way of cultivating a habit of curiosity. You can read his 2024 version here. I didn’t make it to 52 things this year, but I stayed curious.

My 2024 highlights: My third child and second daughter was born. I helped Macro Oceans scale a regenerative kelp economy and received an Emergent Ventures grant for my work on HeyRecap, a local news AI experiment.

Here are the things I learned along the way:

  1. Transplant recipients can inherit memories from their donors — Adaobi Adibe
  2. The March 2011 earthquake in Japan was so strong that it shortened the length of a day — Earth Sky via my friend Graham
  3. Plants probably have memories. “On one plant, the touch-me-not, feathery leaves normally fold and wilt when touched (a defense mechanism against being eaten), but when a team of scientists at the University of Western Australia and the University of Firenze in Italy conditioned the plant by jostling it throughout the day without harming it, it quickly learned to ignore the stimulus. Most remarkably, when the scientists left the plant alone for a month and then retested it, it remembered the experience.” — Scientific American via The Browser
  4. US coal power plants killed at least 460,000 people over the past 20 years — Melissa Lott
  5. A banana contains the same amount of radiation that a person would get from living next to a properly maintained nuclear power plant for one year — New York Times via Jim Pethokoukis
  6. Smiling was once considered a sign of drunkenness — Upworthy
  7. 78 percent of Christmas hits were penned before 1990 — Can’t Get Much Higher
  8. Lebron and Bronny James are the highest scoring father and son duo in NBA history without Bronny ever scoring a point — @georgemikan
  9. There are more deaths from alcohol in the US each year than all illicit drugs combined — Charles Fain Lehman
  10. France last used the guillotine to put someone to death in 1977 — The Rest Is History
  11. The Barnum effect is when people give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their own personality that are in fact general enough to apply to a wide range of people — Simon Wilson
  12. Predator-prey models have two stable equilibria: one where predator and prey are in approximate balance and the other where both are extinct — Paul Kedrosky
  13. A correction from my 2023 things I learned: working moms today probably do not spend as much time with their children as stay at home moms did in 1960 — Lyman Stone
  14. “Soccer” as a word for the game of football came from the English, not Americans — Duolingo
  15. Quantity precedes quality. Students graded on the quantity of the art they produce make higher quality art than students graded on the quality of art they produce — Perhaps apocryphal via Austin Kleon
  16. Jalapeño peppers are getting less spicy over time —D Magazine via my friend Mark
  17. Electrons within gold atoms are moving at 58% the speed of light — Will Kinney
  18. Lake Superior is about the size of the state of Alabama — Wikipedia
  19. The Milky Way builds between two and six sun-size stars a year — Quanta Magazine
  20. No one’s name was changed at Ellis Island; then, as now, names were printed on tickets. — Rosemary Meszaros and Katherine Pennavaria via Marginal Revolution
  21. The increase in driving due to 9/11 led to ~1600 more traffic deaths than otherwise would’ve been expected — David Epstein
  22. A correction to my 2022 list: Men whose wives are diagnosed with a terminal illness are not significantly more likely to get divorced — Retraction Watch
  23. In 1990, 5% of Americans had a passport; today that number is 48% — Devon Zuegel
  24. Fernet Branca uses 75% of the world’s saffron — Eater
  25. Making TB medicine sweet rather than bitter reduced a child’s risk of developing multi-drug resistant TB by over 50% — Bloomberg via News Minimalist
  26. More than 50% of US couples now meet each online — Eric Klineberg
  27. The Eiffel Tower’s lighting is protected by copyright — Tour Eiffel

If you think we’d have an interesting conversation about kelp, local news, our anything else, send me an email (jdilla.xyz@gmail.com). I’d love to meet you!

Prior lists: 2023, 2022, 2021